The world around us is continually changing, especially when it comes to our livelihoods. Automation, global competition, changing business models, artificial intelligence, the fourth Industrial Revolution, robotics, big data — it’s all driving increasingly rapid transformations in the kinds of work we do and the ways that we do it.
The COVID pandemic only added to this disruption. Now, as the economy strives to ramp back up, we face an ironic disconnect. Millions of jobs are going unfilled while millions of would-be workers remain unemployed. According to the U.S. Labor Department in May 2021, there were 9.3 million available jobs, even as 9 million Americans sought to find work.
While some pundits are pointing to unemployment supplements that were initiated during the pandemic as a major cause, this is only one of many factors and probably not the most significant. Skill mismatches, burnout among essential workers across many fields, including healthcare, education and food preparation, as well as pent-up discontent over diminishing real wages during the past 40 years are all contributing to the problem. These are but a few of the causes behind the current situation.
These issues are not going to be resolved with a single solution, but in looking ahead at what it will take to meet our future labor needs, I think one approach stands out. A comprehensive transition to a lifelong learning model across society could go far in addressing many of these challenges, particularly in terms of continually building the new skills that will be needed to power tomorrow’s economy. The one-job-for-life ideal of the mid-20th century is long gone (if it ever truly existed), calling for a much-needed shift in expectations in our world of accelerating change. To be sure, new approaches to upskilling and certification models, post-secondary funding and even labor laws will be required in order to realize this crucial reimagining of our education and career tracks. These are all matters I continue to explore with my clients so we may all be better prepared to build our preferred futures.
On Tuesday, I had the honor of kicking off Edmonds Community College’s “Kickoff Week”, addressing the professors and administrators there about “Educating Our Workforce in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.” We continued with an hour-long Q&A/conversation following the presentation and I really enjoyed seeing how proactive and engaged everyone was. We had such a productive conversation around so many important topics and potential strategies! From artificial intelligence to diversity issues to the rapidly growing space industry, we explored new ways to help prepare their students to be part of the rapidly changing workforce.
I’m not the first to say it, but we could certainly stand to have a little more science literacy in this country. In almost all countries, actually. It’s not that everyone needs to understand thermodynamics or be able to calculate a Fibonacci sequence. But as our world and our devices grow in complexity, there are certain basic tools we could all use to make our lives better, safer and more financially secure.
The recent death of a teenage girl in Coventry, England following her vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) is an prime example of this. Immediately following the girl’s death, the media jumped on the story, reporting it in such a way that it created a considerable and unnecessary scare. Though the cause of death was in fact an unrelated tumor, it was days before this information was available to the public. While the young girl’s death was tragic, it would be so much more tragic if hundreds of others lost their lives because they didn’t receive this vaccination. HPV is recognized as the major cause of cervical cancer. Worldwide, there are over half a million new cases of cervical cancer annually resulting in over a quarter million deaths each year. Yet it only takes a small number of serious adverse reactions to sway a large portion of the public because they don’t understand the difference between correlation and causation.
In the US, 24 million doses of HPV vaccine have been given in the last four years with a little under a thousand reports of serious adverse reactions. While some people may see this as a large number of reactions, this amounts to four thousandths of a percent! Given any sufficiently large group, it’s inevitable that something will occur to a small subset – they’ll get a cold or be in an auto accident or win the lottery that day. It’s only correlation. The two events are not linked.
Our minds are structured to want to spot patterns in the world around us. But as the world grows more complex, it’s getting harder to simply intuit those patterns correctly. That’s one reason why people believe in wild conspiracies or that a particular number or color or talisman is lucky for them. But with a little better grounding in science, people could make much better decisions. A little introductory physics will convince you that tailgating is a really bad idea, no matter how advanced your braking system. A quick cost-benefit analysis will show that three seconds of seatbelt-fastening every single car trip beats taking the chance of being one of the twenty thousand that die each year because they didn’t. Exposure to basic probability will show why those trips to the casino are a lousy investment. Knowing something about how polls, surveys and studies are performed will show that the methodology used greatly affects their accuracy and usefulness. (Unless your idea of usefulness is misinformation.)
As technological progress accelerates, it’s only going to become increasingly difficult to navigate through life successfully without these basic tools of science. Without them, many of us will increase our chances of being exposed to preventable health risks, of being needlessly scammed and taken advantage of, and even of dying an unnecessary death. And that’s a tragedy.